Weekend predictions: Glicked could earn a combined $200 million this weekend

It might not quite be Barbenheimer, but Glicked is set for a fantastic debut this weekend, with Wicked leading the way, and Gladiator II doing solid work in second place, according to our model this morning. The target for Wicked looks to be around $150 million, while Gladiator II could post $50 million. A combined total of $200 million is within reach, but there’s little to be disappointed about if they fall short of their Friday-morning targets.

Here’s our model’s baseline for Wicked…

Before seeing any official numbers, the audience tracking on this film was already high enough that we removed the “Market strength adjustment” from our prediction. This is a rarely-used feature of our model, which only kicks in for major films that are generating significant interest from non-regular filmgoers.

With the market so weak in recent months, removing the market strength adjustment considerably boosted our baseline prediction for Wicked, but it is still coming in well ahead of that number:

Based on previews alone, something over $150 million looks on the cards. The obvious point of comparison is Barbie, which converted $22.3 million in previews into a $162-million debut. The model adjusts the prediction for Wicked down a little based on our fundamentals prediction, but we’re in seldom-visited territory at this point. The final number could still be anywhere from $120 million to $160 million, based on past performance, and lot will depend on word of mouth and return visits on Saturday and Sunday.

Gladiator II was also generating enough audience buzz for the model to ignore the market strength adjustment…

In this case, the model thinks the fundamentals prediction aligns quite closely with the preview number from Thursday…

It looks as though Gladiator is landing somewhat behind Oppenheimer so far. In fact, its best comparison might be Alien: Romulus, particularly given the Ridley Scott connection. The wildcard here is probably how many people saw Wicked last night, and plan to catch Gladiator later in the weekend. If that number is high, $50 million remains within reach for the swords-and-sandals epic.

Also opening in wide release, Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin. is trying to provide some counter-programming this weekend…

This looks as though it might come in slightly lower than other Angel Studios releases, but that’s based largely on how weak the model thinks the general market is right now. Maybe it will benefit from being an alternative for people who can’t get in to Wicked or Gladiator, but $3 million would be a good result.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

There really are only two stories this weekend. Right now, the model thinks Wicked and Gladiator will make $190 million between them this weekend. As already noted, $200 million remains on the cards.

In the face of that, returning films look likely to take quite a tumble, with the model already predicting a 60%-plus decline for Red One. That might prove to be optimistic.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com