The latest issue of The Numbers Business Report marks the end of the Summer season by looking forward to 2026. Our feature article provides our first prediction for the first quarter, with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases coming out.
Only two new releases are currently forecast to earn over $100 million, Project Hail Mary and Hoppers. This relatively low number (the same as this year, and well behind 2024’s count) is due to the scarcity of established franchise films with built-in audiences. While there are recognizable titles like Scream 7, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, and Soulm8te, they don’t carry the same weight as the likes of Dune: Part Two, this year’s Marvel films, Kung Fu Panda 4, or Mufasa: The Lion King.
In fact, the quarter’s overall performance will rely heavily on the late-2025 release of Avatar: Fire and Ash. Scheduled for December 19, 2025, the film is predicted to earn $680,000,000 in total, with about $307 million of that falling in the New Year. It seems likely that few competitors want to battle with Avatar and Wicked: For Good (projected to earn $37.6M in 2026), especially for premium large-format screens. The result is a relatively thin slate for big box office hitters in January and February. By month, our current standouts are:
January: 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple ($81m)
February: Scream 7 ($95m)
March: Project Hail Mary ($190m)
To discover our full official prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.
Also in this edition…
Our mini-feature article this month provides a useful counterpoint to the lackluster efforts of the studios to produce movies by looking at how theaters are doing an ever-better job of extracting revenue from theatergoers. Looking at the economics of the Q2 average ticket price reveals how important it is to give theaters pricing flexibility.
We have our final pre-release predictions for all of September’s wide releases, including A Big Bold Beautiful Journey and One Battle After Another (among many others), along with our full 2025 prediction.
Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.
For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.
On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.
Alongside The Business Report, we are publishing updated six-week predictions every week. Those have day-by-day predictions of the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Unlock this addition through a subscription.
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Our data team is cooking up some exciting new projects. We haven’t talked much about international box office in the Business Report, but we are honing our data engine to improve the import and analysis of reporting from around the world.
Contact The Numbers Business Report team