Weekend predictions: The Fall Guy could miss $30 million this weekend

The first weekend in May traditionally marks the beginning of Summer Season at the box office, and The Fall Guy seems like a perfect Summer movie: action, comedy, big-name stars, and a touch of nostalgia. This looked for a while like it could break out to become a major hit for Universal, and the studio has marketed it heavily. Audience buzz never really took off beyond a respectable level, and its Thursday previews suggest it might not make $30 million this weekend.
With Tarot not expected to bring in a huge amount of business, this is looking like a modest start to Summer, although there is one other film that could help turn things around.

Here’s what the model thought of The Fall Guy going into the weekend…

Our model’s prediction for The Fall Guy was based on the track records of director David Leitch, and stars Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt. All three of them have a history of box office hits, mixed with a few disappoints, and it’s not hard to see why the studio has high hopes for this film.

Unfortunately, things don’t look so good based on the preview number (which includes an unreported amount from Wednesday advance screenings):

Based on the performance of similar films, a $30-million opening looks like the high end of possibilities going into the weekend. That doesn’t spell disaster—one of the advantages for a film released now is that many weeks of school holidays lie ahead—but there’s no question this is a disappointing first night.

Our baseline analysis for Tarot was fairly modest, given Sony’s history with horror movies.

Unfortunately, its previews look soft…

An opening around $7.5 million wouldn’t be a big surprise, but it looks like Tarot won’t be a serious challenge this weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

The real wildcard this weekend is Star Wars: The Phantom Menace. Re-releases of classic movies are very unpredictable, but something over $5 million is certainly on the cards. Anything over $10 million would be a major surprise, but, given the anemic state of the market right now, every dollar helps.

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com