Weekend projections: family films Garfield and IF take top two spots

Family audiences are carrying the theatrical business this weekend, with The Garfield Movie moving into top spot on its second weekend, and IF climbing back to second place in its third outing as Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga slips to third.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Nine out of ten films in the top ten are falling short of our model’s prediction this weekend (the outlier, In a Violent Nature didn’t have a prediction, although it is doing better than what the model would have expected). That’s not unexpected coming off Memorial Day weekend, although there’s often a film that builds audience, relatively speaking, as we get into the Summer.

The film that has the best argument for over-performing so far this Summer is IF. The model now thinks it will finish its domestic run with $107 million, up from $102 million at the end of its first weekend. With so little competition for screen space, it well do better than that domestically. Internationally, it will earn another $11 million this weekend, per Paramount, taking it to $57.6 million abroad, and $138 million worldwide. Its remaining two major territories are Japan on June 14 and China on June 15, but strong holds from its existing markets means there’s a good chance that its international total will end up around its domestic number, and it’ll hit $200 million worldwide by the end of its run. Notably, it has earned $12.4 million so far in the United Kingdom, and is up 7% this weekend to top the chart.

Garfield is looking weaker than IF in North America, with our model predicting it’ll end its run with $81 million as of this morning. Internationally, it looks to be doing a bit better, although it has opened in a slightly different mix of markets, and at different times, making a direct comparison hard at this stage. Overseas markets will deliver $27.1 million for the feline film this weekend, down just 3% from last weekend, and taking it to $100.7 million internationally so far. It is performing strongly in Mexico, with $19 million after five weekends, compared to IF’s $7.6 million after three weekends. Meanwhile, it has earned $8.1 million in the United Kingdom, compared to the $12.4 million for IF.

None of these are blockbuster numbers, and the clear champ in international markets at the moment is Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, which has $197.1 million internationally so far, according to Disney. Its top markets are China, with $27.9 million; France, with $20.2 million; Mexico, $17.7m; and the United Kingdom, $16.9m.

Furiosa, meanwhile, has picked up $64.7 million internationally for $114.4 million worldwide so far. It has $8.2 million from South Korea, $5.8 million from the United Kingdom, and $4.9 million from France… all fairly modest figures, although its hold was good in Korea.

With Bad Boys: Ride or Die coming this Friday, along with horror movie The Watchers, older audiences will have another opportunity to return to movie theaters in larger numbers before Inside Out 2 arrives on June 14. For now, though, it’s family audiences that are carrying the market.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com