Weekend projections: Lilo & Stitch opens with sensational $148 million/$183 million over blockbuster Memorial Day weekend

The stars have aligned perfectly for the movie business this weekend, with two films perfect fits for the two big Memorial Day demographic more than hitting their mark. Lilo & Stitch will make around $145 million over three days, and Disney is projecting $183 million over four days, giving it the best 4-day Memorial Day opening of all time. Mission: Impossible—Final Reckoning is doing great business in second place, with $63 million over three days and $77 million over four, setting a franchise record in the process.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Audience approval for Lilo & Stitch is sky-high, with CinemaScore reporting an “A” rating, and an “A+” from younger fans. The audience is 36% male, 64% female, and breaks down as 56% “general audience”, 29% parents and 15% kids, per Disney. That general audience score is notable, and one of the reasons the film is doing these numbers. 30% of the audience is 25–34, a demographic that will include some parents with kids, but many who are not. The audience is culturally diverse too: 39% Hispanic, 34% Caucasian, 12% African-American, 8% Native American/Other, and 7% Asian.

Lilo & Stitch is performing a little less consistently internationally, where it will earn $158.7 million this weekend. It is doing blockbuster business in Mexico, with $23.7 million, and tops $10 million in three other countries: the United Kingdom ($12.9m), Brazil ($11.1m), and France ($10.7m).

Mission: Impossible is doing great international business, on top of its fantastic domestic debut, with the $127 million it will earn internationally this weekend just over double its domestic haul. Top markets are Korea, with $12.7 million, Japan with $11 million, and the United Kingdom, with $10.7 million.

Stateside, the demographic profile of Mission: Impossible is a mirror image of Lilo & Stitch, with the audience 62% male and 38% female. 54% are 35 or older, and the cultural/ethnic demographics skew Caucasian, with 58% of the audience compared to 15% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 10% Black, and 6% Native American/Other.

All told, we are still just about on track for a $350-million four-day weekend, although that will be dependent on how the two big movies perform on Monday. $345 million is a shade more likely at this point, but that’s a rounding error away, really. This is a simply great weekend for mainstream movie theaters.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com