Weekend projections: Mickey 17 tops the chart with mediocre $19.1 million

Warner Bros. is reporting a $19.1-million projected opening weekend for Mickey 17 this weekend, somewhat short of our Friday-morning prediction, and a disappointment for a movie that cost the studio $118 million. Captain America: Brave New World will cross the $175-million mark today and lands in second place in its fourth weekend. Anora rejoins the top 10 on the back of its Oscar triumph.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

On Friday, I mentioned that the model’s prediction for Mickey 17 depended on the film’s Thursday audience not being dominated by Robert Pattinson and Bong Joon-ho fans, or it at least finding a way to reach beyond that core audience over the weekend. Its final result suggests that it hasn’t really done that. It does have good reviews (although generally not spectacular ones), and positive word of mouth will help it, but probably not enough to come close to justifying its budget. The model predicts it will finish its domestic run with $57 million based on its first three days in theaters.

Mickey 17 is doing better internationally, with $34.2 million to date, and $24.5 million this weekend. Unsurprisingly, its best territory is South Korea, where it has bagged $14.6 million so far. Other territories with over $1 million in the bank are France ($2.9m), the United Kingdom ($2.7m), Germany ($1.3m), Mexico ($1.3m), and China ($1.3m). All told, $100 million internationally remains just within reach, which would add up to around $150 million worldwide by the end of its run. Let’s hope the studio doesn’t learn the wrong lesson from its creative gamble—this is exactly the kind of film studios need to be making to revitalize the theatrical business.

This weekend’s other new releases are all doing modest business. Rule Breakers will come in with just shy of $1.6 million, while In the Lost Lands will just make the top 10, with a shade over $1 million. Now we have a theater count, we could run our final prediction on that film, and it’s coming in around 50% of what the model would expect given the cast, crew, and distributor—not a disaster, but certainly a disappointment.

Overall, spending will be up a shade from last weekend, but still mired well below the $100-million/weekend mark.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com