Here it is, once again, the biggest opening of the year as Sony/Marvel Studios‘ Spider-Man: Brand New Day looks to eradicate all superhero fatigue with an estimated $465M global debut in what is a 99% foreign footprint. That would stand as Sony’s biggest-reported global opening ever after its previous Tom Holland-Zendaya pairing in 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which began with an awesome $600.5M worldwide start, and ahead of 2003’s Spider-Man 3‘s $381.6M.
No Way Home stands as the biggest opening post-Covid and the third-biggest opening ever at the worldwide B.O., after 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($1.22B) and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($640.5M).
Among all post-Covid global bows, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is looking to rank third behind No Way Home and 2025’s Zooptopia 2 ($560.3M WW) and ahead of 2022’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($452M WW), 2024’s Deadpool & Wolverine ($444.7M WW), 2023’s Avatar: The Way of Water ($441.7M WW) and Chinese animated sequel Ne Zha 2 ($431.2M WW).
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So many asterisks to the projection: There’s a lot of bullishness out there from rivals and the industry that the $225M-net production could do significantly more than what’s out there. Word is that North American presales stand at $80M, which is around the $78M that Spider-Man: No Way Home logged before its start. NRG is seeing a $195M domestic opening at 4,300 theaters, which still would stand as the best of 2026, ahead of Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 ($159.6M), but others believe the number is closer to $250M. North American previews start at noon Thursday, but there’s a one-showtime preview on Wednesday night for Prime members. Everyone is expected to show up to the movie including women under 25, who usually are the last ones to a Marvel pic — the appeal here being not just Zendaya but Stranger Things‘ Sadie Sink joining the dramatis personae.
With an international forecast is around $270M, the comp for foreign here is Deadpool & Wolverine, which bowed to a reported $233.3M.
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Why all the caution? Different circumstances, different times. Five years ago when No Way Home hit, it was when many moviegoers were looking to head back to the cinemas as Covid appeared to be easing (despite a spike of the Omicron strain following the sequel’s opening). It’s not a three-Spider-Mans kind of film. Sony and Marvel didn’t go bigger, rather they went deeper with a higher-stakes love story and erratic, emotional villain, with Shang-Chi filmmaker Destin Daniel Cretton taking over the directing reins from Spider-Man Holland franchise director Jon Watts.
Brand New Day has a Rotten Tomotoes critics score of 89% certified fresh at the time of this post, just under No Way Home‘s 93%. Fans already have their tickets, but will non-frequent moviegoers make a beeline this weekend or wait it out? It’s not a once-in-a-generation sequel a la 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens (which came out 10 years after the last prequel Revenge of the Sith). Also, there’s the whole mis-forecasting of $100M+ openings. When it’s this big, sometimes box office sources over-project despite the film filing a spectacular start anyway.
Just like it’s supposed to be the biggest opening YTD stateside, Brand New Day should see 2026-record starts in most of Europe and Latin America. Zendaya and Holland have been on a global photo-taking tour in Paris, Italy and elsewhere and have been doing double duty in tub-thumping their other movie, The Odyssey, which has already cleared $600M worldwide.
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China didn’t play No Way Home but did play the other Holland Spider-Man movies Homecoming ($116.3M) and Far From Home ($199M reported). So no one has seen the movie legally there. The hope is that there’s still come yearning; Zendaya and Holland did travel to Shanghai to promote. Furthermore, you can’t expect the massive starts for a Spider-Man film like the days of yore. However, a $45M projection is in store, which would be more than the entire running total of Toy Story 5 ($41M), and it’s up against the opening of a local title, The Belief .
In terms of the major territories rollout, Wednesday will see the webslinger hitting Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Korea, Italy, France and the UK (start time after 7:30 p.m., following the the London premiere). Peter Parker’s alter ego lands in Australia, India and Saudi Arabia on Thursday, with Japan going on Friday.
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While Universal’s Christopher Nolan title The Odyssey owns Imax for most of the world, Spidey gets it where Odysseus doesn’t have it — meaning China, Japan and Korea. For quite some time, some questioned whether Sony would move Brand New Day to an Imax-accessible date, but the Culver City lot is fine and dandy without it, and with all the PLFs. Spidey is everyman hero, and it’s important to reap riches in 2D formats, particularly in Latin American markets, where it’s a family film.
No Way Home‘s biggest-grossing territories outside the U.S. (in its first go-round) included UK ($127.4M), Mexico ($81.1M), France ($70.2M), South Korea ($61.7M), Russia ($57M, though it won’t be going with Brand New Day, of course), Australia ($56.8M), Brazil ($56.4M), Germany ($46.3M), India ($36.8M) and Japan ($36.3M). Post-Covid, Hollywood has whined about the falloff for MPA fare in Pan Asian territories, particularly the once-robust South Korea. While Brand New Day no doubt is expected to be successful there, it will be going up against the local alien hit in its third frame, Hope, which counts $23.2M through Sunday.
What of the third weekend of Uni’s The Odyssey in the U.S.? No worries with at worst a 50% decline off its $90M second weekend with $45M. The pic passed $300M on Tuesday and is within $26M of taking over Nolan’s $330M domestic on Oppenheimer. Excellent Imax seats are still hard to get (unless you want a neck strain in the front two rows for three hours).
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