Weekend projections: Challengers off to good start on stronger-than-expected weekend

Challengers will power to victory at the box office this weekend, with Amazon MGM Studios projecting a $15-million opening weekend for the sports drama. That’s comfortably ahead of our Friday-morning prediction. Unsung Hero is also beating our Friday forecast, with an expected $7.75-million debut for Lionsgate.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

As I noted on Friday, incomplete reporting of preview numbers made it hard to be certain where Challengers would land this weekend, with $15 million definitely on the cards. The fact that it has hit that mark is a good sign of strong word of mouth. It’s the first time Luca Guadagnino has earned top spot on the domestic weekend chart, and also a first win for Amazon MGM Studios, which had a successful run with The Beekeeper earlier this year. That film sat at number two on the chart for three weekends, and was in the top five for five weeks. The “new” studio—which, of course, has consider history behind it as MGM and Amazon Studios—is the fifth-highest-grossing distributor in Norther America so far this year, a promising sign that it can compete in the big leagues.

With $10 million internationally, Challengers sits at $25 million worldwide so far.

Unsung Hero is coming in quite close to our baseline prediction of $9 million. Its special screenings (which earned $1.2 million) probably dented its Thursday preview number ($470,000), which in turn reduced our prediction for its opening weekend. The bottom line is that this is another good number for a faith-based drama.

Also out-performing our prediction this weekend is Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, which will come in third with $7.2 million. All told, the top three will make about $7.5 million more than we expected on Friday, enough to boost the top 10 over the $50-million mark. That’s still not a great figure, and the market will need a big help from The Fall Guy to get back into gear.

One movie will hit a notable landmark this weekend: Kung Fu Panda 4 will pass $500 million. It’s the third film to pass that landmark in 2024, after Dune: Part Two and Godzilla x Kong.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com